The 25-MSA Composite is still 29% below its peak, but it has been rising quickly since hitting its lowest level of the year in late March, according to the July 2009 RPX Monthly Housing Market Report released by Radar Logic Incorporated. In fact, the increase in the Composite from the end of March to the end of July 2009 was larger than the average increase for that period over the last ten years.

   Key Observations of the July 2009 RPX Monthly Housing Market Report:
· The gain in the RPX 25-MSA Composite between the end of March, when it hit its lowest point of the year, and the end of July was larger than would be expected given historical price trends. Between March 30 and July 23, 2009, the Composite increased by $13.24, or roughly 7.2%, from $185.16 to $198.40. The average gain over the same period during the last 10 years is $9.72 or 5.4%.
· After controlling for seasonal price patterns using the Census Bureau's X-12 seasonal adjustment program, we found that the RPX Composite increased $5.82, or 3.1%, from the end of March to July 23. Had the increase in the RPX Composite been the result of seasonal factors alone, one would expect the seasonally adjusted index to remain flat over that period. The fact that it increased indicates that the strength in home prices exceeds what one would expect given seasonal factors alone.
· In January, monthly sales volumes hit their lowest point in Radar Logic's historical data, and since then monthly volumes have remained low relative to years past. Nevertheless, volumes have been increasing rapidly. The 25-MSA sales volume increased by 49,000 sales, or 87%, between January and June. In percentage terms, this was the largest June-over-January gain in the last ten years. In terms of the number of sales, the growth in 2009 was comparable to the gain over the same period in 2006 and 2007, the peak years of the housing bubble.
· If history repeats itself, housing demand will start to decline in the autumn as seasonal factors influencing market demand, such as cold weather and the beginning of the school year, become more salient. However, several other factors will also influence demand in the near term: widespread negative equity, conservative mortgage underwriting, the expiration or extension of government incentives, the unleashing of pent-up demand by low home prices and changes in the unemployment rate